New Poll: Black Voters in Final Survey Before Election: A Majority Decided on Support and Expect More Political Violence If GOP Doesn’t Win Control of Congress (BLACKtrack)
AUDIENCE:Reproductive Justice, Race and Racism, African-Americans
Washington, D.C. | October 27 – With the election approaching, HIT Strategies released its final pre-election survey of Black voters today, highlighting Black voter attitudes on election integrity, post-election violence, and preferred voting methods.
On election integrity, 88% of Black voters believe the election will be conducted fairly and accurately in Democrat-controlled states. However, that number drops 19 points for trust in states controlled by the GOP. Black voters similarly distrust Republicans and Republican voters on political violence- 51% of Black voters believe there will be violence if the GOP does not win control of Congress. In comparison, just 31% of Black voters feel the same holds true if Democrats do not win control.
For voting in the midterms, of those respondents who have not already voted, 25% plan to vote by mail, 35% in person before Election Day, and 34% in person on Election Day. This is a 10-point increase in respondents who plan to vote in person since July.
Furthermore, many Black voters have made up their minds on whom they intend to support. Just 13% of respondents have decided on their preferred candidate within the last month, while 67% have known whom they will support for over a month- and 33% decided even before their state’s primary election.
More Takeaways from October BlackTrack
BlackTrack Tracking Questions & Approval Bump
- The number of Black voters who approve of President Biden’s job performance remained steady at 78%, sustaining gains in the approvals that he made since the summer
- The number of Black voters who approve of Democrats in Congress came in at 80%, continuing the third straight month of 80+ approval after registering 70% in July 2022
- The number of Black voters who believe the Democrats are making progress on issues affecting Black voters remained at 56%, a 12-point increase from a low of 44% in July 2022
- HIT has found perceptions of voting power to make changes on issues that matter to them to be a more direct correlate to Black voter turnout than vote likelihood questions
- The number of Black voters who believe their vote has the power to effect change on the issues that matter to them decreased from 67% to 65% since last month
- This number is also 10-points higher than the perception of vote power from this past July
Black Male Voters and Biden
- The number of Black men who approve of President Biden’s handling of the needs of Black people increased by 9 points, from 70% to 79%
- The increase was even higher among Black men under 50, whose approval of Biden on this issue increased from 57% to 71% in just one month
- The increased approval of Black men and younger Black men coincided with President Biden’s announcement that he would pardon all federal cases related to marijuana possession, in which Black men over indexed approval
Black Voters and Marijuana
- 76% of Black voters supported President Biden’s announcement on federal marijuana pardons against just 7% who opposed it
- 68% of Black voters support marijuana being legal for recreational use across the United States compared to 14% who oppose it
Black Voters and Abortion
- 81% of Black voters believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases
This BlackTrack survey was fielded via an online opt-in panel from October 14-17, 2022, with a margin of error of +/-3.1%. The information above represents selected data from the BlackTrack survey.
BlackTrack is HIT Strategies’ recurring monthly national survey of 1,000 Black voters ages 18+ on current social and political issues. BlackTrack tracks Black Americans’ opinions and disaggregates the data into demographic groups to understand Black voters’ full diversity. The majority of BlackTrack data is proprietary and available for subscribers. For more information on previous data or to subscribe, go to hitstrat.com/blacktrack.
About HIT Strategies
As the only millennial and minority-owned public opinion research company, HIT Strategies maintains an unmatched cultural competence in understanding and communicating to young audiences and diverse communities like LGBTQ+ Black Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, and Pacific Islanders. We help our clients translate their target audience’s values, attitudes, and behaviors into real-time insights and messaging. For more information, visit hitstrat.com and follow us on social media @HITStrat.